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中国股市与经济增长的相关性分析.doc

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摘 要:历来股市被人们称之为经济的“晴雨表”, 纵观历史我们可以发现无论我国上证指数走势还是深证指数走势都与经济相关性程度不大。所以对于我国股票市场与经济相关性的分析研究有助于深入了解我国股票市场价格走势和经济增长情况现状,同时了解我国现阶段股市的法律法规制定和实施情况。并能通过对比美国股市情况,了解我国股市所存在的特殊问题。从而针对股市现存在的问题探究有力的改革措施,以使股市真正起到作为中国经济晴雨表的作用。

   本文主要通过中美股市对比,通过描述性统计分析、实证分析来分别介绍中国股市在结构上,制度上与美国股市存在的差异。从而分析中国股市与经济相关性。并给出自己几点建议。

   本文第一部分首先是课题研究背景及其意义。分别从中外众多学者分别介绍中国股市与美国股市历史发展回顾、现状。第二个部分主要介绍历来理论支持和股市与经济的关系。第三个部分介绍中国股市发展历程。第四部分通过2008-2013年初的经济和股市季度数据,从图示和相关系数,实例研究来分析股市与经济相关性。第五个部分主要通过邹氏检验2008经济危机是否对走势产生结构变化和组成GDP的各项因素与上证指数的回归分析。第六部分是总结全文、提出合理化建议。

   本文希望通过相关系数分析和实证分析深入探索中国股市与经济增长相关程度,并找出影响相关程度的因素,从而提出更适合我国证券市场发展的合理化建议。

关键词:股票市场;经济增长;相关系数;邹氏检验

 

Abstract:The stock market has always known as the barometer of the economy, Through history we can see that regardless of the Shanghai index trend SSE Index trend is not to the degree of economic relevance. So for China's stock market and economic analysis will help the understanding of the situation status quo of China's stock market prices and economic growth, and we understand the laws and regulations of China's current stock market development and implementation. U.S. stock market, and through comparison to understand the special problems that exist in China's stock market. Thus for the existing stock in to explore effective reform measures, so that the stock market really play a role as a barometer of China's economic.

   By China and the United States stock market comparison analyzed by descriptive statistics, empirical analysis were introduced to China's stock market the existing differences in the structure, institutional and U.S. stock market. Analyze China's stock market and economic relevance and give a few suggestions.

   The first part of this paper is to research background and significance. Many Chinese and foreign scholars, respectively, were introduced from China's stock market and the U.S. stock market history Development Review, the status quo. The second part introduces the theoretical support and has always been the relationship between the stock market and the economy. The third section describes the development process of China's stock market. By the beginning of the fourth part of the economy and the stock market 2008-2013 quarterly data from the icon and the correlation coefficient, case studies to analyze the correlation between the stock market and the economy, and compare the American stock market and economic relevance differences.The fifth part of the Chow test 2008, mainly through the economic crisis is generating structural changes on the trend and composition of GDP, with the Shanghai Composite Index various factors regression analysis. Section VI concludes the paper, put forward reasonable suggestions.

   This paper aims to analyze the correlation coefficient analysis and empirical depth exploration of Chinese stock market and economic growth, relevance, and to identify the factors that affect the degree of correlation, which made more suitable for the development of China's securities market rationalization proposals.

Keywords: The stock market; economic growth; correlation coefficient; chow test

论文资料贡献者对本文的描述:所以对于我国股票市场与经济相关性的分析研究有助于深入了解我国股票市场价格走势和经济增长情况现状,了解我国股市所存在的特殊问题。从而针对股市现存在的问题探究有力的改......
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